NHL Strategy Comparison

Compare Betting Strategies & Kelly Criterion Edge Thresholds

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About This Analysis

Kelly Criterion Strategy Comparison

This page compares different Kelly Criterion betting strategies with varying edge thresholds:

  • Edge Threshold: Minimum model advantage over market odds required to place a bet
  • Higher Thresholds: Fewer bets, but higher confidence and potentially better ROI
  • Lower Thresholds: More bets, but lower average edge per bet
  • Quarter Kelly: Bet sizes are 25% of full Kelly to reduce variance

Data Sources: NBA game data from NBA API • Historical odds (2021-2023) from Fantasy Sports dataset • Live odds from Unibet

Evaluation Period: January 1, 2025 - January 10, 2026 (1,312 games with complete odds coverage)

Strategy Performance

Kelly Criterion
ROI
9.4%
Total Bets
1148
Win Rate
63.5%
Wins
729
Losses
419
Total Profit
$6560
Total Wagered
$70075
Edge Threshold
0%
Max Drawdown
$1263 (19.0%)
Capital Required
$925
Monthly Profit/Drawdown
0.52x
Sharpe Ratio
0.21
Value Only
ROI
13.7%
Total Bets
929
Win Rate
63.9%
Wins
594
Losses
335
Total Profit
$12710
Total Wagered
$92900
Edge Threshold
0%
Max Drawdown
$1671 (13.1%)
Capital Required
$1100
Monthly Profit/Drawdown
0.76x
Sharpe Ratio
0.32
Value Edge Scaled (Edge × 4)
ROI
17.6%
Total Bets
929
Win Rate
63.9%
Wins
594
Losses
335
Total Profit
$5204
Total Wagered
$29501
Edge Threshold
0%
Max Drawdown
$722 (13.9%)
Capital Required
$570
Monthly Profit/Drawdown
0.72x
Sharpe Ratio
0.43
Half Edge (Edge × 0.5)
ROI
17.6%
Total Bets
929
Win Rate
63.9%
Wins
594
Losses
335
Total Profit
$650
Total Wagered
$3688
Edge Threshold
0%
Max Drawdown
$90 (13.9%)
Capital Required
$71
Monthly Profit/Drawdown
0.72x
Sharpe Ratio
0.43
Confidence >55%
ROI
5.5%
Total Bets
1148
Win Rate
63.5%
Wins
729
Losses
419
Total Profit
$4702
Total Wagered
$86100
Edge Threshold
0%
Max Drawdown
$1138 (22.8%)
Capital Required
$975
Monthly Profit/Drawdown
0.41x
Sharpe Ratio
0.09

Side-by-Side Comparison

Strategy Bets Win Rate Total Wagered Total Profit ROI
Value Edge Scaled (Edge × 4) 929 63.9% $29501 $5204 17.6%
Half Edge (Edge × 0.5) 929 63.9% $3688 $650 17.6%
Value Only 929 63.9% $92900 $12710 13.7%
Kelly Criterion 1148 63.5% $70075 $6560 9.4%
Confidence >55% 1148 63.5% $86100 $4702 5.5%

Visual Comparison