NBA Strategy Comparison

Compare Betting Strategies & Kelly Criterion Edge Thresholds

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About This Analysis

Kelly Criterion Strategy Comparison

This page compares different Kelly Criterion betting strategies with varying edge thresholds:

  • Edge Threshold: Minimum model advantage over market odds required to place a bet
  • Higher Thresholds: Fewer bets, but higher confidence and potentially better ROI
  • Lower Thresholds: More bets, but lower average edge per bet
  • Quarter Kelly: Bet sizes are 25% of full Kelly to reduce variance

Data Sources: NBA game data from NBA API • Historical odds (2021-2023) from Fantasy Sports dataset • Live odds from ESPN

Evaluation Period: January 1, 2025 - January 10, 2026 (1,312 games with complete odds coverage)

Strategy Performance

Kelly Criterion
ROI
78.4%
Total Bets
1280
Win Rate
67.6%
Wins
865
Losses
415
Total Profit
$67560
Total Wagered
$86150
Edge Threshold
0%
Max Drawdown
$513 (0.8%)
Capital Required
$1025
Monthly Profit/Drawdown
13.18x
Sharpe Ratio
1.57
Value Only
ROI
93.9%
Total Bets
909
Win Rate
66.1%
Wins
601
Losses
308
Total Profit
$85345
Total Wagered
$90900
Edge Threshold
0%
Max Drawdown
$480 (0.6%)
Capital Required
$1100
Monthly Profit/Drawdown
17.77x
Sharpe Ratio
1.64
Value (Edge × 4)
ROI
141.6%
Total Bets
1558
Win Rate
53.1%
Wins
827
Losses
731
Total Profit
$155548
Total Wagered
$109817
Edge Threshold
0%
Max Drawdown
$840 (0.5%)
Capital Required
$1566
Monthly Profit/Drawdown
18.51x
Sharpe Ratio
1.85
Half Edge
ROI
165.1%
Total Bets
909
Win Rate
66.1%
Wins
601
Losses
308
Total Profit
$16615
Total Wagered
$10063
Edge Threshold
0%
Max Drawdown
$69 (0.4%)
Capital Required
$157
Monthly Profit/Drawdown
23.94x
Sharpe Ratio
1.65
Confidence >55%
ROI
46.1%
Total Bets
1346
Win Rate
68.6%
Wins
923
Losses
423
Total Profit
$46521
Total Wagered
$100950
Edge Threshold
0%
Max Drawdown
$768 (1.6%)
Capital Required
$975
Monthly Profit/Drawdown
6.06x
Sharpe Ratio
1.38
Value + 5% Min Edge
ROI
110.4%
Total Bets
781
Win Rate
67.7%
Wins
529
Losses
252
Total Profit
$86240
Total Wagered
$78100
Edge Threshold
0%
Max Drawdown
$417 (0.5%)
Capital Required
$1000
Monthly Profit/Drawdown
20.68x
Sharpe Ratio
1.70

Side-by-Side Comparison

Strategy Edge % Bets Win Rate Total Wagered Total Profit ROI
Half Edge 0% 909 66.1% $10063 $16615 165.1%
Value (Edge × 4) 0% 1558 53.1% $109817 $155548 141.6%
Value + 5% Min Edge 0% 781 67.7% $78100 $86240 110.4%
Value Only 0% 909 66.1% $90900 $85345 93.9%
Kelly Criterion 0% 1280 67.6% $86150 $67560 78.4%
Confidence >55% 0% 1346 68.6% $100950 $46521 46.1%

Visual Comparison