NHL Strategy Comparison

Compare Betting Strategies & Kelly Criterion Edge Thresholds

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About This Analysis

Kelly Criterion Strategy Comparison

This page compares different Kelly Criterion betting strategies with varying edge thresholds:

  • Edge Threshold: Minimum model advantage over market odds required to place a bet
  • Higher Thresholds: Fewer bets, but higher confidence and potentially better ROI
  • Lower Thresholds: More bets, but lower average edge per bet
  • Quarter Kelly: Bet sizes are 25% of full Kelly to reduce variance

Data Sources: NBA game data from NBA API • Historical odds (2021-2023) from Fantasy Sports dataset • Live odds from Unibet

Evaluation Period: January 1, 2025 - January 10, 2026 (1,312 games with complete odds coverage)

Strategy Performance

Kelly Criterion
ROI
14.4%
Total Bets
1051
Win Rate
58.5%
Wins
615
Losses
436
Total Profit
$10760
Total Wagered
$74750
Edge Threshold
0%
Max Drawdown
$1050 (9.5%)
Capital Required
$925
Monthly Profit/Drawdown
0.93x
Sharpe Ratio
0.17
Value Only
ROI
7.0%
Total Bets
1421
Win Rate
54.0%
Wins
768
Losses
653
Total Profit
$10011
Total Wagered
$142100
Edge Threshold
0%
Max Drawdown
$3308 (29.5%)
Capital Required
$1600
Monthly Profit/Drawdown
0.28x
Sharpe Ratio
0.13
Value Edge Scaled (Edge × 4)
ROI
15.4%
Total Bets
1421
Win Rate
54.0%
Wins
768
Losses
653
Total Profit
$7195
Total Wagered
$46638
Edge Threshold
0%
Max Drawdown
$864 (11.6%)
Capital Required
$578
Monthly Profit/Drawdown
0.76x
Sharpe Ratio
0.21
Half Edge (Edge × 0.5)
ROI
15.4%
Total Bets
1421
Win Rate
54.0%
Wins
768
Losses
653
Total Profit
$899
Total Wagered
$5830
Edge Threshold
0%
Max Drawdown
$108 (11.6%)
Capital Required
$72
Monthly Profit/Drawdown
0.76x
Sharpe Ratio
0.21
Confidence >55%
ROI
11.5%
Total Bets
1051
Win Rate
58.5%
Wins
615
Losses
436
Total Profit
$9081
Total Wagered
$78825
Edge Threshold
0%
Max Drawdown
$1217 (12.5%)
Capital Required
$825
Monthly Profit/Drawdown
0.68x
Sharpe Ratio
0.15

Side-by-Side Comparison

Strategy Bets Win Rate Total Wagered Total Profit ROI
Value Edge Scaled (Edge × 4) 1421 54.0% $46638 $7195 15.4%
Half Edge (Edge × 0.5) 1421 54.0% $5830 $899 15.4%
Kelly Criterion 1051 58.5% $74750 $10760 14.4%
Confidence >55% 1051 58.5% $78825 $9081 11.5%
Value Only 1421 54.0% $142100 $10011 7.0%

Visual Comparison